Mewn adroddiad newydd, dywed dadansoddwyr ymchwil byd-eang BofA eu bod yn disgwyl i'r farchnad gopr symud yn ôl i'r coch o 2025 wrth i'r don gyfredol o adeiladu prosiectau gael ei gwblhau.
Er gwaethaf diffyg a ragwelir yn 2022 a chynnydd o 7.7 y cant mewn cynhyrchu copr byd-eang yn 2023, mae risgiau'n cael eu gogwyddo i'r anfantais o ystyried perfformiad gwael mwyngloddiau newydd yn ystod y blynyddoedd diwethaf, meddai'r banc.
"While the visibility of the pipeline of recent projects has been good, the increase in activity has been accompanied by volatility," analysts at the bank said. "In fact, many projects currently under development have been nearly 30 years in the making, and supply growth is likely to fade from 2025 due to relatively limited exploration activity in recent years."
Mae Bank of America yn gweld nifer o broblemau sy'n cyfyngu ar dwf cynhyrchu. Yn ystod yr wythnos LME ddiweddar, adlewyrchodd araith gan Edgar Blanco Rand, cyn-ddirprwy weinidog mwyngloddio yn Chile, yr amodau hyn.
Cyflwynodd y swyddog gyfres o brosiectau yn seiliedig ar Chilea a fyddai'n cael eu gwireddu ar gost o 74 biliwn erbyn 2029 i gyflawni cyfanswm cynhyrchiad o 7 miliwn o dunelli. Mae Edgar Blanco yn canolbwyntio ar gopr, gan nodi bod cynhyrchu wedi bod yn wastad ers 2000 ar tua 5.7m tunnell.
"This implies capex intensity of about 50,000 per tonne, well above the 10,000 to 20,000 per tonne range of recent years. As an aggravating factor, investment needs to be large enough to offset production losses of about 1.5 million tonnes."
According to Bank of America, the 10 most significant supply increases will account for 58 percent of the increase in output by 2022. This supports BofA's view that the expansion is very concentrated and has two implications. First, operational problems at just one or two mines could significantly affect the balance of the market, meaning that the trajectory of these 10 mines is critical.
Yn ail, yn ôl Bank of America, mae bron pob busnes newydd yn cael ei yrru gan weithredwyr sydd â hanes profedig, gan leihau'r risg o doriadau a llai o -danfoniadau.
